CORRELAÇÃO ENTRE MOVIMENTOS DE MASSA E PLUVIOSIDADE NAS ÁREAS DE RISCO DO MACIÇO DE JABURUNA, VILA VELHA – ES

Abstract

The Maciço de Jaburuna in Vila Velha, Espírito Santo, is a densely populated region of slopes that has been frequently affected by mass movement episodes associated with intense rain events for years. These occurrences bring inconveniences to the population and infrastructure, constituting a challenging field for Civil Protection and Defense and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) policies. This paper proposes to develop a correlation study between mass movement and rainfall indexes, in order to provide parameters to subsidize the elaboration of an early warning system for the referred area. The evaluation of the results obtained indicates that the time intervals of 6 hours, 24 hours, and 96 hours are the most influential in triggering landslides. Notably, the great intensity and short-term rains play a significant role. The analysis suggests that these rains can cause mass movement independently of early accumulated rainfall. The minimum values observed for geological events are 22.99 mm/6h, 39.22 mm/24h and 53.63 mm/96h, defined as monitoring thresholds at the observation level. Values above 39.22 mm/6h, 39.22 mm/24h and 58.08 mm/96h have been defined as attention level thresholds. As warning level thresholds, values above 93.91 mm/6h, 111.23 mm/24h and 132.05 mm/96h were established.